The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may go for a hike of up to 0.25 per cent in the reverse repo rate at which the RBI absorbs excess liquidity and leave the repo rate at which it lends, to narrow the policy rate corridor, a British brokerage said on Thursday. "Growth concerns amid spread of the Omicron variant and relatively benign inflation out-turns provide the RBI with enough room to maintain its growth-supportive monetary policies," analysts at Barclays said, ahead of the resolution announcement next week. The RBI will hike the reverse repo rate by 0.20-0.25 per cent, given its liquidity management actions, it said.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy is yet to recover from the impact of the second Covid wave.
This is the full text of Finance Minister P Chidambaram's speech on economy to Lok Sabha.
The finance minister has stayed true to her commitment to fiscal consolidation, even though the pace of the decline in the deficit could have been faster, notes A K Bhattacharya.
India's services activity expanded at the fastest rate in a year during February, while employment fell further and companies noted the sharpest rise in overall expenses, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose from 52.8 in January to 55.3 in February, pointing to the sharpest rate of expansion in output in a year amid improved demand and more favourable market conditions. The index was above the critical 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the fifth month in a row during February as the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines led to an improvement in business confidence towards growth prospects.
'Narasimha Rao asked me why China was doing so well in attracting foreign investments and I gave my frank opinion.' 'I told him that giving thrust to exports had to be a national effort.' 'But in India, the system was very centralised in the Government of India and the state governments had no role to play.'
After helping the government in policymaking since October 2014, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian is returning to academics and will be teaching at Harvard Kennedy School on a visiting position. In an interview to Dilasha Seth and Somesh Jha, he says the ease of doing business agenda needs to move forward and India must try to integrate with the global value chains. Edited excerpts.
'Market feels this Budget will promote all-round growth and that is what is giving it confidence.'
The RBI's surprise rate hike may have been prompted by its inability to convince the government to cut excise duty on petrol and diesel and take other supply-side measures to tame runaway inflation, sources aware of the central bank's thinking said on Thursday. There has been a record Rs 10 a litre increase in petrol and diesel prices in a matter of 16 days beginning March 22, which has further fuelled the already high commodity prices. The RBI, which is mandated to ensure inflation is under 6 per cent, acted with a 0.40 per cent increase in repo rate to check prices before they went completely out of hand.
Widening of the tax base, doing away with cess and surcharge, improvement in compliance and moderation in tax for emerging sectors are some of the suggestions submitted to the Finance Ministry ahead of the Budget by Think Change Forum (TCF). Experts are of the opinion that there is a need to grow tax revenues for the government to drive economic growth and make investments in developmental activities, TCF, the think tank said in a statement. Towards this end, poor compliance was identified as a weak link in achieving targeted collections leading to complex issues like overtaxing, complicated tax structures, rising litigation, among others.
Industry body CII has pitched for a reduction in personal income tax rates, decriminalisation of the goods and services tax and a relook at the capital gains tax rates as part of its agenda presented to the government for the forthcoming Budget. Arguing that the GST law already contains adequate penal provisions for deterrence against evasion of taxes, CII has suggested decriminalisation of GST law. Also, the applicability of prosecution provisions should not be based on the absolute amount of tax evasion but should be based on real intent to evade the taxes and a certain percentage of the tax payable, it stated.
Massive restrictions on legal immigration - including restricting immigrants who contribute to medicine, science, and research in the United States, and who are working to develop treatments for coronavirus and other deadly diseases - will not only hinder efforts to save lives, but prevent job creation and hurt American economy as the country struggles to recover.
IT services major Infosys on Wednesday announced a new programme, wherein it will offer 500 job seekers the opportunity to complete a fully digital, online diploma course certified by Salesforce. The programme aims to prepare Americans for 21st century careers in the technology sector. Leveraging Trailhead, Salesforce's free online learning platform, the program will train these 500 American workers, free of cost, for roles at Infosys as Salesforce Certified Administrators and Salesforce Industries Developers, a statement said. The programme, targeting recent graduates from major universities, liberal arts colleges, and community colleges, will help Infosys to create a workforce prepared for the future, it added.
"Now is the time for countries with room in their budgets to deploy -- or get ready to deploy -- fiscal firepower. In fact, low interest rates may give some policymakers additional money to spend," new IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said.
'Today, there is no easy money to be made after the run-up in equities.'
'If you look at the order books of capital equipment companies or money deployed on the ground, there is forward movement in terms of actual investment by the private sector.'
'While we note the very strong cyclical recovery in the economy, we believe there is still uncertainty over medium-term prospects.'
Slamming the Union budget as 'insipid' and lacking in stimulus for growth, the Congress on Saturday said it does not address the main issue of unemployment and describes the mindset of the government.
'So you have welfare programmes, you reach out to the poor, you cut out the middlemen, you cut out the leakages and you try to raise the standard of living.'
Indian states are preparing for a Rs 1.9 lakh crore (Rs 1.9 trillion) tax windfall this fiscal year.
As India emerges from the COVID-19 crisis, the ninth budget under the Modi government, including an interim one, is widely expected to focus on boosting spending on job creation and rural development, generous allocations for development schemes, putting more money in the hands of the average taxpayer and easing rules to attract foreign investments.
The state's revenue receipts might not afford various freebies announced by the parties, unless revenue deficit and hence fiscal deficit is widened.
'It's vital that over the next 10 years, that India, the US and the Artemis Accords family of nations come together to ensure that we not only return humanity to the moon, but that we build the technology that will allow us stay there permanently.' 'And then go on to Mars.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted on Wednesday that his government's action against corruption has made some people angry but he will not turn back in this fight against graft and nepotism, however big an alliance his rivals form against him.
Here's the full text of address to the nation by President Droupadi Murmu on the eve of the Republic Day 2023.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance despite rising inflation. This is the 11th time in a row that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has maintained the status quo. RBI had last revised its policy repo rate or the short-term lending rate on May 22, 2020 in an off-policy cycle to perk up demand by cutting the interest rate to a historic low.
The implication of a slowdown in the financial services sector are very different (eg, likely to affect fewer people directly, and even that affecting those at the top of the income distribution) from that of a slowdown in construction, one of the most employment intensive sectors in the Indian economy (that will affect aggregate demand much more).'
FY22 will be the year to rebuild with the IMF projecting output growth at 11.5 per cent, economic survey at 11.0 per cent and the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee at 10.5 per cent.
'The most important expenditure in the Budget that indicates employment generation is infrastructure.'
Inflation targeting has worked well and the government must stay with it, and the framework is going to work well in the period ahead also, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Thursday. He also said low inflation contributes to sustainable growth. Addressing the 'Times Network India Economic Conclave' virtually, Subbarao said the government's proposal to privatise some public sector units is not akin to selling family silver but it is a route for putting India on a sustainable growth path.
Rather than talking endlessly about lost and marginal opportunities, India's climate envoys need to start thinking bigger, says Mihir S Sharma.
'We can go somewhere between 35 per cent and 40 per cent.'
'Domestic will remain very much the core of what IndiGo is.' 'But the emphasis in our next growth phase is going to be on the international side.'
The fiscal deficit of the Centre remains a worry, running at over 6.5 per cent of GDP in April-September 2014, mainly because of revenue shortfalls from exaggerated projections in the government's July Budget and despite the relief on subsidies from lower oil prices.
Trade between India and Indonesia stands at $20 billion.
Record liquidity infusion by the central bank in the banking system during the financial year 2020-21 amid sluggish economic activity resulted in banks investing more in safe government papers than in extending loans, data from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. This trend has not been seen in nearly two decades, barring 2016 - the year of demonetisation.
A report card titled '10 Years of Progress and Growth' highlighting achievements of the government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Friday said 'average GDP growth rate during the period of UPA government (2004-05 to 2013-14) has been 7.7 per cent despite two global slowdown in this period'.
'There is a fiscal crisis building up, which might become apparent when the Finance Commission presents its report,' warns T N Ninan.
In his address, Modi said climate and calamity are linked to culture, and it will be difficult to avoid calamity as long as concerns for the climate do not become a part of culture.
The substantially increased economic dualism may exert lasting negative influences which could include a reduced potential for economic growth; the persistence of a very weak employment and poverty situation; rising social and political discord; and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical challenges, cautions Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
